Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.767882e-05 0.000081 0.000096 0.000113 0.000131 0.000152 0.000175
2025-02-16 5.269726e-05 0.000071 0.000092 0.000119 0.000150 0.000185 0.000227
2025-02-23 4.289918e-05 0.000063 0.000087 0.000118 0.000157 0.000201 0.000256
2025-03-02 3.307966e-05 0.000053 0.000079 0.000114 0.000159 0.000212 0.000280
2025-03-09 2.624860e-05 0.000046 0.000073 0.000111 0.000160 0.000221 0.000299
2025-03-16 2.163041e-05 0.000041 0.000070 0.000110 0.000165 0.000234 0.000324
2025-03-23 1.832258e-05 0.000038 0.000067 0.000111 0.000171 0.000248 0.000350
2025-03-30 1.511724e-05 0.000034 0.000064 0.000110 0.000174 0.000258 0.000372
2025-04-06 1.203184e-05 0.000030 0.000060 0.000107 0.000175 0.000265 0.000388
2025-04-13 1.018226e-05 0.000028 0.000058 0.000107 0.000180 0.000277 0.000412
2025-04-20 7.689685e-06 0.000024 0.000053 0.000102 0.000177 0.000279 0.000422
2025-04-27 6.367832e-06 0.000022 0.000051 0.000102 0.000181 0.000289 0.000443
2025-05-04 4.902937e-06 0.000019 0.000048 0.000101 0.000184 0.000300 0.000467
2025-05-11 4.232616e-06 0.000018 0.000049 0.000105 0.000194 0.000322 0.000507
2025-05-18 3.403325e-06 0.000017 0.000048 0.000106 0.000201 0.000337 0.000537
2025-05-25 2.301117e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000101 0.000198 0.000340 0.000551
2025-06-01 1.576543e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000099 0.000198 0.000346 0.000568
2025-06-08 1.131550e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000098 0.000201 0.000357 0.000593
2025-06-15 8.442330e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000099 0.000207 0.000371 0.000622
2025-06-22 5.663564e-07 0.000009 0.000036 0.000097 0.000209 0.000381 0.000645
2025-06-29 3.274317e-07 0.000007 0.000033 0.000095 0.000208 0.000386 0.000661
2025-07-06 2.154996e-07 0.000007 0.000032 0.000095 0.000213 0.000399 0.000688
2025-07-13 8.762966e-08 0.000005 0.000029 0.000091 0.000209 0.000398 0.000696